Serious Violence Duty Strategy - 3. Summary of the strategic needs assessment of violence

A strategic needs assessment was completed in August 2023 and was intended to enable partners to identify current and long-term issues relating to serious violence and those most vulnerable to involvement in the local area. This provides a greater understanding of established and emerging serious violence trends, priority locations or other high-risk issues. Updated data analysis was completed in September 2024 to ensure the assessment was accurate of the current situation in the borough. The purpose of the update was to see if the trends remain the same and if any amendments were needed to the recommendations.

The strategic needs assessment has been developed following an evidence-based analysis of data relating to violence, as well as broader datasets including those in relation to deprivation and health.

The strategic needs assessment has looked at the critical areas of violence and vulnerability within the definition of serious violence, including violence affecting those under the age of 25, domestic abuse and sexual violence.

In assessing each of the critical areas, the analysis has looked at locations that have a higher risk of violence and temporal factors, such as the times of greater and lesser offending, including the times of day, days of the week and seasonal trends through the year. The analysis has also looked at the profile of victims and offenders of violence, in order to understand the risks and opportunities for prevention.

The graph below shows the number of offences reported for violence with and without injury, domestic abuse flagged offences and sexual offences since 2021.

3.1 Violence with injury

• There were 1,806 violent offences (including 1 homicide) in 2023 that resulted in injury, this is an 8% increase compared to the previous year. The borough recorded a higher crime rate per 1,000 residents compared to the London average (9.9 vs 8.6 per 1,000 residents)
• Offences were more likely (however not statistically) to happen between 12:00 – 18:00 and 18:00 – 00:00 on Saturday. This was the same as 2022
• Actual Bodily Harm offences made up most of the violent with injury offences (61%) in 2023
• Knife Enabled offences accounted for 5.2% of all offences in 2023
• College Park & Old Oak recorded the highest number of offences (198), followed by Shepherd's Bush Green (194) and Hammersmith Broadway (168)
• These three wards accounted for almost one-third (31%) of all violence with injury offences in the borough
• Around 80% of the offences had a known suspect (80%) and 22% of those involved someone under the age of 25
• Suspects were mainly male, with more male victims than female. Under the age of 18 there are more male victims than female. In 2022 under the age of 18 there were more female victims than male. Where females are victims of violence they are more likely to be under the age of 18

3.2 Domestic abuse

• There were 3,028 offences flagged as Domestic Abuse in 2023, this is similar number compared to 2022 and similar to the London average (16.5 vs 16.4 per 1,000 residents)
• Most offences flagged as Domestic Abuse relate to domestic incidents which make up 41% of all offences, followed by harassment, stalking or offences relating to contact (15%) and assault (13%). This is the same pattern that was seen in 2022
• Where the identities have been recorded suspects are most likely male and victims are female
• College Park & Old Oak recorded the highest number of offences with Domestic Abuse flag (10%), with the next highest one being Sands End (7%) and Shepherd's Bush Green (7%). The same hotspots were seen in 2023

3.3 Sexual offences

• There are a range of crimes that can be considered as sexual offences, including rape or sexual assault, crimes against children including child sexual abuse or grooming, and crimes that exploit others for a sexual purpose, whether in person or online
• There were 422 sexual offences in 2023, this is similar compared to 2022. The borough has a slightly higher crime rate per 1,000 residents compared to the London average (2.3 vs 2.0 per 1,000 residents)
• Although there was a slight increase in sexual offences in 2023, rapes have decreased by 6% compared to the previous year
• Rapes made up 28% of all sexual offences in 2023. The proportion is slightly lower compared to 2022 where rapes accounted for 30%.
• 15% of all sexual offences were flagged had Domestic Abuse, this is a reduction from 18% in 2022
• 38% of sexual offences occurred in a public space, either indoor (20%) or outdoor (18%), 4% occurred on transport and 31% took place in residential areas. Other 32% had an unknown location
• Sexual offences are statistically more likely to happen on Tuesday afternoons between 12:00 – 18:00 and on Monday and Saturday evenings between 18:00 and 00:00
• 15% of sexual offences involved a suspect aged under the age of 25
• College Park & Old Oak and Shepherd's Bush Green have the highest number of Sexual Offences in 2023. In 2022 the highest number of offences took place in Shepherds Bush Green, Hammersmith Broadway and Brook Green

3.4 Differences between recorded offences in 2022 and 2023

The most significant difference between the 2022 and 2023 offence data was the increase in proportion of offences recorded in College Park and Old Oak across violence with injury offences, sexual offence and domestic abuse.

• Violence with injury - College Park & Old Oak recorded the highest number of offences , followed by Shepherd's Bush Green and Hammersmith Broadway
• Domestic abuse - College Park & Old Oak recorded the highest number of offences with Domestic Abuse flag , with the next highest being Sands End and Shepherd's Bush Green
• Sexual offences - College Park & Old Oak and Shepherd's Bush Green have the highest number of Sexual Offences in 2023

3.5 Recommendations

The recommendations below were produced from the data trends in the needs assessment and the consultation responses. Further details on the consultation can be found in section 5. Amendments have been made to the recommendations in 2025 based on the increase in proportion of offences recorded in College Park and Old Oak

Recommendation 1:
Tackling domestic abuse should remain a continued focus given the high proportion of violence with injury offences which are flagged as domestic abuse (25%) and the greater number of domestic abuse offences compared to violence with injury offences (68% more domestic abuse offences compared to violence with injury offences). Consideration should be given to investing in gaps in current support provision for those affected by domestic abuse, as well as initiatives to support with early intervention, enable desistence in perpetrators, and prevention projects for young people.

Recommendation 2:
Build stronger and more effective responses to serious violence and sexual abuse, taking account of any links between these offences (and domestic abuse) to ensure the most effective services are commissioned. These responses should pay particular attention to (i) the high proportion of violent offences that involve young people under the age of 25, (i) the high proportion of violent offences that involve females under the age of 18, and (iii) the geographical trend for violence and sexual offences to take place around Shepherds Bush Green, Hammersmith Broadway, and College Park and Old Oak.

Recommendation 3:
A higher than expected proportion of sexual offences occurred in public spaces (both indoor and outdoor) and were concentrated in specific locations (Shepherds Bush, and College Park and Old Oak). Interventions that aim to reduce sexual violence in the public realm should be targeted at these locations including supporting nighttime economy venues and should be designed in consultation with women and girls across H&F.

Recommendation 4:
Shepherd's Bush Green, College Park and Old, and Hammersmith Broadway have the most concentrated number of offences for violence with injury and sexual offences. Specific consideration should be given to where violent crimes are taking place.

Recommendation 5:
Interventions should also consider level of trust and confidence in partnership services and look at ways to engage best with victims of violent crime to build relationships to report and access support. Services should be developed collaboratively with residents when possible.